Democrats think President Biden had a great August and hope that turns into fall momentum, both in legislation and in the election.
Congress will resume next week after a month-long recess, and Labor Day will be seen as the unofficial kickoff of the general election campaign season.
In August, Mr. Biden signed into law a bipartisan semiconductor bill and a comprehensive Democratic-only bill to fight climate change and address health care costs. He announced the drone strike that killed an Al-Qaeda leader. The White House cheered at the positive headline of falling gas prices. And Biden’s poll numbers are starting to pick up bit by bit.
“Right now, Democrats, including Biden, are confident. said Jim Kessler, executive vice president of policy at .
A new Quinnipiac poll shows the president’s approval rating jumped nine points in a month to 40%, and a Gallup poll in August found 44% of respondents approve of the job. I know what I did. The ratings he recorded his lowest ever in July at 38%.
A Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday found Democrats had a three-point advantage over Republicans when voters were asked which party they would support in House districts if the midterm elections were held today. I found out
Ivan Zapien, a lobbyist and former Democratic National Committee (DNC) employee, said the current momentum on Mr. Biden’s agenda was “perfectly timed” ahead of the November midterm elections. The chances of the Democrats retaining the Senate have grown over the summer as Democrats rise in the polls and Republican candidates struggle to gain momentum in some key states.
“History is against the Democrats this election, and the poll numbers look bad, but in politics, momentum is everything. I think there are,” Zapien said. “I’ll find out later if that’s enough.”
However, it is widely expected that Republicans will regain control of the House. And Republicans point out that while the presidential numbers, a barometer often used to predict midterm election results, may be improving, they remain low.
“It’s a perception that momentum continues,” said David Urban, a Republican strategist who served as a senior adviser to former President Trump in Pennsylvania in 2016. “His numbers are still in his early 40s.”
Biden has also endured criticism from Republicans and moderate Democrats for writing off some of the student-loan debt of millions of borrowers last month.
Urban said student loan policy “has never been so divisive.”
Part of the reason for Mr. Biden’s decline in polls is months of Democratic infighting over a broad domestic policy bill. The bill comes before the announcement of a surprise deal between Senator Joe Manchin (DW.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (DY) to cut climate, health and tax packages. appeared to be dead.
Democrats believe the passage of the bill, formally known as the Control Inflation Act, will help convince voters that the party is working to address the problem of eating at the table.
Former DNC Chairman Tom Perez, co-chair of the Democratic Party’s American Group, said, “These midterm elections are often challenging for the ruling party, but we’re making tangible progress on issues that really matter. , has a lot of optimism… the bridge.
But communicating that progress to voters is the next pressing task facing the White House and its proxies, said John LaBomberd, former senior aide to Senator Kirsten Cinema (D-Arizona). said.
“In my view, my political party has traditionally not been very good at communicating to the American public what we have achieved for them in a clear and lasting way. We want to buck that historical trend so that we don’t get distracted by criticism. said.
There is still time until the midterm elections, and three months in politics feel like a lifetime, he said.
“I hope this momentum is real and will continue for the next eight to nine weeks, but it’s because Democrats, from the progressive left to the moderate centrist, will deliver legislative results in a simple and lasting way. It depends on whether you advertise,” said La Bombard.
Nadeam Elshami, former chief of staff to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California), said historically voters are starting to pay attention to the fall midterm elections. But the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning federal abortion protection and the passage of a bill on health care and climate policy caught people’s attention this summer.
“Suddenly, August has become the month of action. In September, you are appealing to voters. Vote me for reasons x or y. said:
A recent survey, in which Democrats have a 3-point advantage over Republicans, found abortion to be the biggest issue for voters over the economy and inflation.
Democrats also believe that the conservative High Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will revitalize the Democratic base ahead of the midterm elections, especially in states where draconian laws restricting abortion are currently in place. It points to signs that it is attracting independents and Republicans in the department.
“I still think one of the biggest factors in this election was the Roe v. Wade decision being overturned,” said Democratic pollster Serinda Lake. “It’s a game changer.”
Lake described a recent focus group in which female voters described abortion rulings as “contract violations” and accused Republicans of not caring about women. Democrats have beaten expectations in every special election held since the ruling, including winning her two seats in the House.
But there are some potential pitfalls this fall that could distract from a Democratic victory this summer. This includes discussions about ongoing solutions, funding Ukraine during its war with Russia, and how much money should be spent in efforts to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. .
Failure to pass continued resolutions will lead to a government shutdown and does not bode well for either party in an election year. Meanwhile, the president has successfully funded Ukraine from Congress, but he is struggling to get more funding for COVID-19.
LaBombard also said there could be “further surprises” in Congress in September, such as codifying moves on marriage equality and electoral reform. He said they would be “really important cherries on top” of the already substantial Congress.
“I think the chances of a voter count law being passed before the midterm elections are outside. I don’t have one, so I think it’s going to be a pretty busy travel schedule,” Kessler said.
Biden has resumed his travels, focusing on the 2022 midterm elections. As of Monday, he’s moved to Pennsylvania his third time in his week. Pennsylvania is a crucial state to victory in 2020 and home to important midterm elections.
In his prime-hour address from Philadelphia on Thursday, he characterized former President Trump and his Republican allies as a threat to democracy, and his message to voters this fall is only policy victory. made clear that it did not lead
“I don’t think August voters pay attention, but it’s always political history. But it’s not,” Ershami said. “They’ve been paying attention, and I think that’s why we’re seeing momentum among Democratic voters heading into September.”
