Copenhagen — Russia’s war in Ukraine has led Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO, and Denmark, now already a member of the military alliance, will abolish the EU’s opt-out on security and defense. I am considering.
On Wednesday, Danes will vote in a referendum on the future of opt-out, which has been held for 30 years.
The Danish government is in favor of abolishing opt-out. “There is Europe before and after February 24, when Russia began its illegal war with Ukraine,” Foreign Minister Jeppekofod told POLITICO that removing the opt-out would be a “strong signal.” I added that. Unified European.
Polls suggest a solid lead in the “yes” campaign. However, experts say this is a close competition, with 20-30% of undecided voters making decisions, and more “no” votes expected on the final day. The decisive factor can be Euroskeptics.
Stakes
Danes vote on whether one of the four defense opt-outs negotiated after the Maastricht Treaty was rejected by the state in a 1992 referendum should be converted to an opt-in.
If a “yes” vote is given, Denmark can participate in and cooperate with the development of joint EU military operations such as the Bosnia and Herzegovina Peacekeeping Mission and the Anti-Piracy Mission Off the Coast of Somalia. Acquisition of military power within the EU framework.
Apart from the referendum, the government Major parliamentary parties have also agreed to increase Denmark’s defense budget to 2% of GDP by 2033, in line with NATO’s goals.
“We are going to invest more in defense, so it would be advantageous for Denmark if we could translate these investments into real capacity and join the European Defense Agency, PESCO, for example. [Permanent Structured Cooperation] Or the Cyber Security Project, “says Kofod.
However, if Denmark votes to maintain an opt-out, it reaffirms Denmark’s particular Euroscepticism. Denmark is most skeptical when it comes to further European integration or recognized federalization and voting, while supporting the Single Market and further economic cooperation. In the previous two referendums to maintain opt-out.
It will also hurt the Social Democratic Party and the other eight parties that are collecting votes in favor. Only three parties, the Danish People’s Party on the far right, the New Right on the far right, and the unified list on the far left, are in favor of maintaining it.
According to the latest survey from the public broadcaster DR released on May 20, 42% of voters are expected to vote in favor and 28% are expected to vote against.
Derek Beach, who is working on a research project to investigate public opinion on defense at Aarhus University, said about two-thirds of the undecided voters are expected to vote against it.
“If the votes are 14% ahead, it means that the final result is relatively close, but there are still votes,” Beach said. However, he added that other polls predict that the difference between the two campaigns will be much smaller. In short, the race is a close quarters race and may even tend to favor No.
No more EU
In a 2014 Eurobarmeter survey, 74% of Denmark opposed the outlook when the final question of whether the EU should “develop into a nation-state federation” was opposed, but the EU average was only 34. %was. whole.
The EU is “something Danish sensitive and many … feel that they will lose everything we give to the EU,” Beach said. But if the Danes vote to overturn the opt-out, they “suggest that there may be some movement in the sense that the Danes are a little more solidarity with the other EU and Ukraine.”
The perceived fear of losing sovereignty is also central to the No campaign, and politicians warn that overturning opt-outs could lead to more EUs, and even EU troops.
Peter Kofod, MEP of the Danish People’s Party, said:
“I am very afraid that the EU will start building something in parallel with what is happening at NATO, and I hope to spend money, time, resources and soldiers on the latter,” he adds. rice field.
However, with expert support, Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod will not lose sovereignty, as Denmark still has the right not to participate in missions that it does not want to participate in or veto missions before it is approved. Emphasized.
If there was a transfer of sovereignty, “then I wouldn’t have encouraged Denmark to join, not about it, but about how Denmark can work better with others,” Cofod said.
Talks in Brussels on the revision of the EU treaty to abolish the rule allowing a country to reject foreign policy also face a lot of opposition. In Denmark, such measures require a referendum or a 5/6 majority of parliament, and the Danish government is working with 12 other countries to oppose the change.
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