ROME — Italy is on course to elect its most right-wing government since World War II after predictions suggested a coalition led by Giorgia Meloni would come to power.
Italians voted in elections on Sunday, with analysts predicting it would lead far-right agitator Meloni, the leader of Italy’s Brotherhood Party, as the country’s first female prime minister.
If projections and exit polls are confirmed, the right will seize control at a crucial time for the European Union’s third-largest economy as Russia’s war in Ukraine drives inflation and tests the limits of Western unity against Russia. will hold the
A result like this would raise big questions about Italy’s future direction both nationally and internationally. Divisive identity politics have suddenly become mainstream in the national debate, while Meloni brings potentially subversive remarks to his table at the top of EU decision-making. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who fell out with Brussels over the rule of law dispute, tweeted “Congratulations” before Meloni declared victory.
Meloni’s Brothers of Italy received 24.6%, based on a partial tally of Senate votes by polling firm Consorzio Opinio for broadcaster Rai. 8.5% of the Anti-Immigration Alliance Party and Forza Italia, the center-right group of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, has 8%.
Overall, if this result were accurate, it would give the right-wing coalition a total of 42.2% of the votes in the Senate.
“Italy has chosen us. We will not betray her,” Meloni said at the party’s election night event at a five-star hotel in Rome until 2:30 a.m. “We will work so that Italians can be proud to be Italian again,” Meloni said, adding that the results are still final. Not a thing, but a clear indication that the Italians want a government led by her party.
Meloni was greeted by cheers and began singing along to a pop song, saying, “I’ll sing it later.” She said her party’s lead in the results so far is “a night of pride, a night of redemption, a night of tears, hugs, dreams, and memories. This night clearly makes impossible bets possible.” shows that.”
Meloni’s main left-wing rival had already conceded defeat. Deborah Ceracchiani, leader of the Democratic group in the House of Representatives, told a news conference: “Definitely, given the data we have, the right wing led by Giorgia Meloni cannot be considered victorious.” Left-wing Democrats will be a responsible opposition, she said, and the responsibility is even more important given that the right-wing majority in Congress does not represent the majority of the country.
MP Guido Crosetto, one of the founders of the Brothers of Italy, told POLITICO that his colleague’s priority was to “address the energy and inflation costs that are destroying Europe’s social and economic fabric. It’s a very difficult time with budgets that have to be approved on short notice, but our leadership is up to that point,” said Crosetto. “She would make a great prime minister.”
The federation’s Matteo Salvini tweeted: “The centre-right has a clear lead in both the House and the Senate! It’s been a long night and I’d like to say thank you already.”
Will it last?
Lorenzo Castellani, from the Department of Political Science at the University of Luis in Rome, said details of the final outcome would be crucial to Meloni’s chances of forming a long-term government. If the predictions are accurate and the right gets only about 42%, Meloni and her allies would have “enough seats to form a government, but a majority of which would be very limited, especially in the Senate, where , may not last long,” he said.
If the exit polls are correct, getting 43-47% of the vote would mean a majority of at least 15-20 senators, saying, “This means we can govern in a more stable way without problems. he said. At 46-47%, “they should have won 90% of the first seats past the post and had the necessary two-thirds supermajority to change the constitution without a referendum. “
Voter turnout dropped to just 64% from 73% in the last election in 2018 after heavy rains in many parts of the country.
The results seem to confirm Meloni’s astounding surge, which saw the Meloni Party win just 4% in the latest election in 2018.
Meloni’s success has also been untarnished by his ties to previous governments, as he has continued to oppose the party since it was founded a decade ago.
But her rise has led to soul-searching among some of the Italian left, who view Meloni’s political tribe as Mussolini’s fascist descendants. It goes back to the Italian Social Movement (MSI) founded by ex-fascists. Her hard-line stance on immigration and drugs, coupled with her disapproval of abortion and staunch Euroskepticism, reinforce the picture.
Meloni is proud of his status as an outsider. Her personality as a short, belligerent working-class woman has made her stand out even in a field teeming with Europe’s most colorful politicians.
Over the past year, she has sought to recast the Italian brothers as a mainstream conservative group and fully align with NATO and the US on Ukraine to appeal to more sophisticated voters. She refused to back her allies’ unrealistic promises about pensions and taxes.
“Mr Meloni has succeeded in removing voters from her constituency. She is seen as the current leader, the most consistent and uncompromising in the coalition,” Mr Castellani said.
The gains she’s made over the past two weeks are likely due to the bandwagon effect of voters aligning themselves with the winner.
Since the fall of Mario Draghi’s government in July, the right-wing coalition has dominated public opinion polls, but the absence of voter polls during the final two weeks of the campaign casts doubt on the size of the lead for both sides. Certainty has arisen.
After the results are officially confirmed, Italian President Sergio Mattarella plans to start talks with political parties to see if a right-wing candidate can secure a majority in parliament.
Under the right-wing coalition’s agreement, the political party with the most votes will nominate the prime minister’s candidate. Given the necessary horse trades for ministerial positions, the next government may not be in office for several weeks.
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