More Chinese cities are announcing easing of restrictions over the weekend, following unprecedented protests against China’s tough ‘Zero COVID’ policy.
But easing the strict quarantine policy means China will have to increase vaccination rates, especially among the elderly, and risk mass deaths if it doesn’t prepare hospitals and medical staff, health experts warn. and poses other risks.
Ben Cowling, chief professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong’s School of Public Health, said other countries have experiences that Beijing can learn from.
“Until recently, they weren’t thinking about exiting from zero COVID. They weren’t thinking enough about alternative strategies. That means the current country isn’t ready for an exit.”
He pointed to experiences in Taiwan and Singapore, where deaths spiked after abandoning COVID-zero policies of border closures, contact tracing and quarantine. But the hospitals there were well prepared, so I wasn’t overwhelmed like I was in an unprepared country like India.
“One of the things we know in the last three years is when cases spike. It puts a lot of pressure on hospitals, whether it’s ventilators or intensive care beds with specialist doctors and nurses,” Cowling said.
“I know you can build things up very quickly in China, but in the ICU[intensive care unit]you can’t always find space and have enough beds. It’s about making sure they’re getting training and I don’t think it’s something they can learn quickly. “
Despite recent protests against the policy in several mainland Chinese cities and the economic loss and inconvenience to people, Cowling advises against ending the lockdown too soon.
“I worry that the transition now is too abrupt because older people haven’t had a chance to get boosters or hospitals to be ready.” warns the population and hospitals that there may be a transition in the coming months.”
When hospitals are overwhelmed with patients, mortality increases. China has about the same number of hospital beds per 100,000 population as the United States, but far fewer intensive care units. According to government statistics, China has 3.6 intensive care unit (ICU) beds per 100,000 population, compared with 11 in Singapore and 29.4 in the United States.
In Hong Kong, cases with the same level of severity and similar characteristics had a two to three times higher mortality rate during the peak of the outbreak, when the health system was overwhelmed, Cowling said. is taking place.
Zhang Changchuan, dean of the Department of Public Health at National Taiwan University, said about 100,000 deaths in China, reflecting what happened in Taiwan, where the death toll increased about 16-fold after switching to coexisting with the virus. of deaths may occur.
“The number of infected people and deaths will be much higher than before. They know it, but there is no other way,” Chan said, referring to Ice, which previously had tough COVID policies. Rand, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan — showing that it’s impossible to keep COVID-19 out forever.
A Chinese academic study published in Nature Medicine in May found that if China ended its highly unpopular COVID-19 lockdown without increasing vaccination coverage and improving its medical response capacity, It is estimated that as many as 1.5 million people may die.
avoid overcrowded hospitals
Deaths indirectly caused by COVID could also occur if hospitals are unable to treat long-term ill patients or handle medical emergencies.
“I think it will happen in mainland China too. If there is a very large spike in COVID, there will be knock-on effects for people with other health conditions. may come soon and save their lives. In two or three months the ambulance queue may already be full of calls and no ambulance will come even if you get through. not.
If China persuades its citizens to take booster injections, it could reduce the death toll, especially if it takes a more effective mRNA vaccine, Chan said.
According to the government, 90% of the population receives two doses of Chinese vaccines, including Sinopharm and CoronaVac, which are made by traditional methods using inactivated virus. mRNA method used to manufacture Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna products.
According to China’s National Health Commission, 56% of the total population, 68% of those aged 60 and over, and 40% of those aged 80 and over have been boosted.
“If you want to deal with Omicrons, you need three shots,” Chan said, adding that getting a fourth shot would provide even more protection.
Cowling said given that symptoms of Omicron are mild for most people, less vulnerable non-elderly people do not need to be vaccinated more often.
“We need a campaign to get people who have never been vaccinated to get 3 doses and a booster now if it has been more than 6 months since their last dose. We need to run a campaign to get everyone else vaccinated, not everyone else, do it,” he said.
Cowling also said there was no need for China to import vaccines from Pfizer BioNTech or Moderna, noting that a study he and his colleagues conducted and published in October in The Lancet Medical Journal found that the Chinese vaccines are mRNA. He pointed out that it was found to be as effective as the vaccine – when taken three times.
“I can say about the vaccines available in China that they are very effective against COVID – and we have proven it. said.
Until recently, China considered itself successful in fighting COVID-19. The most populous country, with a population of 1.4 billion, has so far reported about 340,000 cases and her 5,200 deaths. But her COVID health challenge, the country’s biggest, may still be ahead.
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