Washington (AP) — Over a year later, there have been many ups and downs. Currently, a democratic economic package focused on climate and health is facing hurdles, but it seems that Congress is heading for a partisan passage next month.
With approval, President Joe Biden and his party can claim a top-priority victory as the November elections approach. They remember approaching the approval of a much more spectacular bill last year, but Senator Joe Manchin, one of the most conservative and contrarians, shot it with a torpedo in the 11th hour. I just saw it.
This time, Senate leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y. Changed West Virginia from Paria to a partner and, to everyone’s surprise, created a compromise with Manchin. This measure is more modest than previous versions, but it still checks the checkboxes for issues that dazzle Democrats.
What they are facing is:
What’s in it?
The bill will generate $ 73.9 billion in revenue and spend $ 433 billion over a decade. Over $ 300 billion will be left to reduce the federal deficit.
They are meaningful cuts of red ink. But they are negligible when compared to the $ 16 trillion in new debt that the nonpartisan Office of Management and Budget estimates to accumulate over the next decade.
This package saves consumer and government money by keeping prescription drug prices down and subsidizes the private health insurance of millions of people. It will strengthen the IRS budget so that tax authorities can collect more unpaid taxes.
This plan will promote clean energy and offshore energy drilling, the balance required by fossil fuel champion Manchin. It also collects new taxes from the owners of the largest companies and wealthy hedge funds.
This was just one part of Biden’s early $ 3.5 trillion package for presidential office, and envisioned the amount of initiatives such as paid parental leave and universal kindergartens. It’s also smaller than the approximately $ 2 trillion alternative that House passed last November after Manchin demanded cuts and went crazy anyway because of inflation concerns.
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Now called the “Inflation Control Act” …
… does it do it? Yes, it is possible, but there are some dissenting opinions.
First, some context.
June prices rose 6.8% from a year ago, the largest increase in 40 years, according to one inflation index scrutinized by the Federal Reserve. This fueled concerns about a recession, following government figures indicating a new contraction in the economy last quarter.
“Improved tax collection, drug savings, and deficit reductions will put downward pressure on inflation,” the responsible federal budget committee said Friday. In a critically acclaimed review, a bipartisan fiscal oversight group called the law “the very kind of package that legislators should implement to support the economy in different ways.”
Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard University, who was President Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser, told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that “reducing deficits is almost always reducing inflation.” Rising prescription drug prices “
A more subdued assessment came from the University of Pennsylvania’s Pennsylvania budget model, which analyzes economic issues.
“The bill will increase inflation slightly until 2024 and then decrease it,” the group said on Friday.
Republican choirs say the Democratic bill will be widespread. Republican Senator Mitch McConnell calls this “a huge new murder tax hike, the madness of the Green New Deal killing American energy, and a huge package of new life-saving prescription drug socialism.” increase. medicine. “
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Future changes
The measure on page 725 will probably still change slightly.
Schumer said last week that the Democratic Party plans to add words aimed at reducing the cost of insulin for patients. Insulin is a diabetes drug that costs hundreds of dollars a month.
Insulin price restraints were a highlight of last year’s Democratic larger package, including a $ 35 / month cap for patients who get their medicines through Medicare or a private insurance company. But this year it was a failure as the measures were put in place.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (DN.H.) and Susan Collins (Maine) have drafted a bill to limit the price of insulin. The outlook for that action diminished after the nonpartisan Office of Management and Budget estimated that it would cost about $ 23 billion and would actually raise insulin prices. The two lawmakers also haven’t produced the ten Republicans needed to succeed in the 50-50 Senate, where most bills require 60 votes.
It’s unclear what the new Democratic insulin language will do. Earlier wording that required private insurance companies to set an insulin cap of $ 35 per month could violate Chamber of Commerce rules that only allow provisions that primarily affect the federal budget.
In addition, under the process that the Democratic Party is using to pass the bill to the House of Representatives with a simple majority, in the tie-break vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, it will face multiple amendments in a voting session that can be carried out overnight, And not tell if some will pass.
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Outlook
All Republicans seem ready to vote “no”.
Democrats need all 50 votes in the Senate, but unpredictable Senator Kyrsten Sinecine (Arizona) has yet to give her view.
Democrats can lose up to 4 house votes to succeed there. D-Calif Chairman Nancy Pelosi said on Friday that “we will pass it” when the Senate approves the package.
Schumaer wants to pass the Senate next week. He admitted that the timeline would be “difficult” as the Chamber of Commerce MPs would take time to ensure that the bill complies with Senate rules.
This also takes luck. All 50 Democrats, including both independents who support them, must be healthy enough to appear and vote.
It is not guaranteed. The latest and highly contagious COVID-19 variants are widespread throughout the country. And the Chamber of Commerce has 33 senators over the age of 70, including 19 Democrats.
Senator Richard Durbin, D-Ill. The 77-year-old was the latest senator to announce that he had illness. Senator Patrick Leahy, D-Vt. , 82 years old is out after hip surgery. Both are expected to come back next week.
