Omicron variants have contributed to an unprecedented surge in COVID-19 cases, straining hospital capacity, but experts say the surge can occur in the form of an “ice pick.” It states that there is. Immediately next month, with a better foothold.
The US healthcare system has serious problems in the short term, but a rapid surge can even help defeat a pandemic in the long run by transmitting broader immunity.
Some experts ask people to succumb to the final series of hard-working precautions, such as wearing masks in public places, indoor environments, etc., to spread the case and go to the hospital before the situation improves. I am.
At a press conference, Janice Orlowski, chief health care officer at the American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMCs), said at a press conference, “It takes some final effort to reach spring.” ..
Some experts predict that cases may peak in late January or early February in the United States, but due to the size of the country, it is currently hit hard like New York. Local spikes occur in certain areas after the areas in which they are already peaked.
Rochelle Warrensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Friday that his experience in South Africa showed a “rapid increase and subsequent sharp decline” in the form of an “ice pick,” but the pattern “crossed.” “Move”, he said. “Country” at various times.
Carlos del Rio, a professor of infectious diseases at Emory University School of Medicine, predicts that a national peak could come “between the third week of January and the first or second week of February.” Did.
The outlook improves when the highly contagious variant of Omicron burns out the population.
“At this rate, it is possible that we can actually reach herd immunity. This can be at least like the beginning of the end of a pandemic at some point, as so many people in the population are infected. In a debate hosted by Emory University, Del Rio said, “Omicron actually infects almost anyone who has never been infected.”
Experts are far better off getting immunized from vaccinations and boosters without getting sick than getting a virus that can have protracted effects even if it’s not bad enough to require hospitalization. I still emphasize that.
Omicron’s symptoms are mild on average, and vaccinated and boosted individuals are particularly well protected from severe illness. However, a very high total number of cases means that the hospital is overwhelmed, even if the proportion of cases requiring hospitalization is small.
“We’re overkill,” said Orlowski, AAMC, who represents teaching hospitals across the country.
More than 700,000 new cases per day are recorded in the United States, an unprecedented number, but often mild or asymptomatic between protection from vaccination and reduced severity of Omicron. It is sex.
Still, according to the New York Times trackers, COVID-19 hospitalizations have skyrocketed to over 128,000, but so far the death toll has been relatively stable at around 1,400 per day.
Orlowski and delRio say that about one-third of hospital patients infected with the virus are not sick with COVID-19 alone, but other symptoms that can be exacerbated by the virus. Said there is.Some hospitals report About half of the patients who tested positive were not primarily hospitalized for COVID-19.
Del Rio is based on the fact that approximately 80-90% of patients hospitalized solely for COVID-19 are unvaccinated or, in some cases, have been vaccinated twice (without booster shots). He said he also had a disease.
The shortage of hospital staff from workers who have burned out in the last two years, or who are currently at home with the virus, is increasing tensions.
“The percentage of ICU is much lower [than previous surges]But that doesn’t mean we’re not overwhelmed, “Delrio said.
The broad immunity provided after the Omicron wave has the potential to improve future prospects, but potential new variants can always cause curve balls.
Leana Wen, a professor of public health at George Washington University, said that unvaccinated people infected with Omicron were “protected if a new variant emerged within 6 months or a year, or if they refused to be vaccinated. Will it be done? ” “
Proponents have long urged the Biden administration to step up efforts to vaccinate the world to help cut off the development of new variants.
Few experts call for closures as they did in the early days of the pandemic, but as some big cities in the United States have already done, they require vaccination to eat at restaurants and go to concerts. Wen said the measures would help. The better availability of rapid testing was also a major pressure point for the Biden administration.
According to Wen, there is currently a “very low” risk to vaccinated and boosted individuals and a “existential and very high social risk” of “the collapse of our healthcare system.” Has a division. It is mainly fueled by unvaccinated people.
However, even vaccinated people are harmed by overwhelming hospitals in the event of life-threatening medical events such as heart attacks and physical trauma from car accidents.
Ross McKinney, Chief Scientific Officer at AAMC, said: “And then go to the fact that people may be exposed and protected.”
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