The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that Omicron variants now account for about 59% of all Covid cases in the United States. This is a significant reduction from previous estimates in the United States. According to experts, this update shows how difficult it is to track a rapidly expanding variant in real time, and how well government agencies are not communicating that uncertainty.
Last week, the CDC said Omicron accounted for about 73% of the variants prevalent in the United States during the week leading up to December 18. However, in that revision, the agency stated that variants accounted for about 23% of cases that week.
In other words, Delta, which has dominated US infectious diseases since the summer, reigned in the US that week as well. This could mean that a significant number of current Covid hospitalizations were caused by infections from Delta. Former Food and Drug Administration Dr. Scott Gottlieb suggestion On Twitter. Hospitalization is usually delayed by a few weeks after the initial infection.
Experts said they were not surprised at the revision given that the CDC estimates are rough estimates and the range of possible values, called “confidence intervals”, is wide. Omicron cases can only be identified by gene sequencing performed on only a small portion of the national sample.
And Omicron is still spreading very fast.
Still, they said the CDC did insufficient work to convey the uncertainty of its estimates. Authorities experienced a series of failures during the pandemic, including sending failed tests early and changing masking guidance. On Monday, when the recommended quarantine period for people with positive test results but no symptoms was halved to five days, critics objected to not having to test before returning to work.
Dr. Jerome Adams, U.S. Surgeon General under former President Donald J. Trump, wrote on Tuesday that he respected the CDC but did not agree with the quarantine decision.
I love CDC. Growing up with a desire to work there, he was one of their most ardent defenders.
I never dreamed that the day would come to advise people not to follow their guidance.Break my ❤️
But ask one of them. They didn’t even follow it for their family. https://t.co/qm1yD4U7pR
— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) December 28, 2021
he Also criticized The new guidance does not have high quality mask testing options or recommendations.
David O’Connor, a virologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, describes Omicron’s estimation as follows: An air of confidence about what will happen. “
Dr. O’Connor said he initially thought the initial estimates “looked high.” The agency made estimates based on “a relatively small number of sequences,” he added.
“It’s like playing Name That Tune and trying to say if the song is Vanilla Ice’s” Ice Ice Baby “or” Under Pressure “based on the first note,” says Dr. O’Connor. I did. “Without more data, it can be really hard to know what it will be.”
Experts say the new estimate of 59% is also a rough calculation and is likely to be revised in the coming weeks.
Nathan Grubeau, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health, said: “Especially in Omicron, things are changing so rapidly that it was very difficult to predict any kind.”
Dr. Grubaugh, who is tracking potential Omicron samples in Connecticut, said the subspecies accounted for more than 80% of cases, but the country is heterogeneous and the subspecies are prevalent in some places. Also said that may be different.
“I don’t know how the CDC built the algorithm, but humans created these programs. Humans are wrong,” said Massimo Capti, a molecular virologist at Florida Atlantic University School of Medicine. increase. “At the end of the day, you can predict as much as you like, but you need to look at the numbers you have in your hand.”
Dr. Oconer, who is tracking Omicron in Wisconsin, said the variant accounted for half of the cases on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-Madison in just three days. “When I was predicting bets, it wasn’t often that the 73% figure was wrong, but the timing to get there was wrong,” he said.
These predictions may become more accurate over time as more data about Omicron is collected.
More accurate numbers are needed to distribute Covid treatments wisely. One of Omicron’s major challenges is the ability of variants to block two of the three monoclonal antibody therapies, which can prevent serious illness in Covid-19 patients. As a result, some hospitals are beginning to reduce these treatments. The managers of NewYork-Presbyterian, NYU Langone, and Mount Sinai have all said they will stop giving patients two treatments that are ineffective against Omicron. However, the drug can still help people infected with Delta.
“If there are still cases of these deltas, discontinuing monoclonal antibodies means that all those who would have benefited from them will not receive them at all,” Dr. O’Connor said. ..
Dr. O’Connor said scientists and healthcare providers need to do a better job of communicating the uncertainty of predicates they share with the general public. “It will be really important to have the humility to admit that there are many things that no one knows or does not know so far.”
