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European countries recorded thousands of additional deaths during last month’s brutal heatwave, according to preliminary data.
Temperatures soared across much of the continent mid-month, breaking records between July 18th and 20th.
Britain hit 40 degrees Celsius for the first time that week. Heatwave scientists say climate change has made it at least ten times more likely. Europe has been hit by drought, wildfires have destroyed thousands of hectares of forest, and air pollution has skyrocketed.
According to POLITICO’s analysis of data released by several national statistical offices, the heat wave was also coincided with a large spike in deaths.
Germany, where temperatures hit 40 degrees Celsius as far north as Hamburg, saw a particularly steep rise, as figures released this week show.
Excluding deaths attributed to the coronavirus pandemic, the country recorded more than 3,000 excess deaths in the week of July 18 compared to the previous five years.
There is no doubt that extreme heat is deadly, but it is difficult to count the victims.
Excess mortality does not represent the exact number of deaths from heatwaves, and experts warn that detailed analysis over months or years will be required to determine the number of deaths.
In many EU countries, including Germany, “the problem is [coronavirus]fever has not been recorded as a factor in human death.
But mortality data can give a firm idea of its impact. Muthers, co-author of a recent major study on heat-related mortality in Germany, thinks it’s very likely that there’s a link between last month’s surge in deaths and scorching temperatures. increase.
“Given the correlation with time and the expected increase in mortality due to heat waves, a more detailed analysis confirms that the peaks seen in this time frame are clearly related to heat waves. I’m sure it will be confirmed,” he said.
Spain and Portugal also saw a spike in deaths in mid-July, with mortality data peaking in the week starting July 11, when temperatures in parts of the Iberian Peninsula lasted several days above 45°C. .
Excluding COVID, Spain recorded more than 2,700 excess deaths in the week of July 11, above the five-year average, and nearly 2,500 the following week. Portugal recorded an excess of 662 non-coronavirus deaths in the week of 11 July, and the following week he had 234 deaths.
However, unlike most countries, official mortality statistics exist in Spain and Portugal, where heat deaths are a direct cause. Between July 11 and 24, Spain’s surveillance system recorded 1,682 heat-related deaths, while Portugal’s chief health officer, Graça Freitas, said that between July 7 and 18 It said more than 1,000 people had died during the day.
The death of a street sweeper who collapsed on Madrid’s scorching pavement has made headlines in Spain. But fatal heatstroke is only a small fraction of heat-related deaths, Muthens said.
Heat stress and dehydration often exacerbate pre-existing conditions, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular disease, but also other diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease.
Increased accident risk is another factor. The scientists, who found that climate change has made Britain’s heatwave ten times more likely than her, also revealed that more than a dozen people drowned as people tried to cool down. Attribution is possible.
In the Netherlands, officials recorded that municipal officials had to cool bridges with water to keep them functioning on the hottest day of a heatwave. 559 non-coronavirus excess deaths compared to the last 5 years.
The National Institutes of Health’s RIVM said in mid-July of a “serious increase”. , making it difficult to assess the impact of heat waves. RIVM did not respond to questions.
Constant excess mortality also clouded the situation across the Channel.
Combined, England and Wales recorded 1,180 additional deaths unrelated to the coronavirus in the week that broke the country’s all-time heat record, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday. people recorded.
However, excess mortality was similarly high or higher in late spring and summer, and the sharp decline in data further complicates the weekly breakdown.
All data is provisional and other countries including France and Italy will release their statistics towards the end of the summer.
Researchers are also not yet sure how many heat-related deaths occurred weeks later, and how that affects estimates of heat-related mortality, Mathers said. says.
Still, the data showing thousands of deaths in a week of extreme heat underscore the impact of climate change.
Scientists believe that all heatwaves we are experiencing today are becoming more likely and more intense due to climate change, and as global warming increases, such extremes will become more frequent and said to increase strength.
“Heat waves are becoming more frequent, and you can see that very clearly,” Mathers said. “When we include recent mortality data, there are more and more years when heatwaves kill significantly more people.”
But much of Europe is still unprepared for what is to come. In Germany, very few municipalities have heat management plans in place.
“That next step is up to politicians. We inform and warn, but it’s not enough,” Mathers said. “In that context, we need action to mitigate this health threat. I think this message is just beginning to permeate.”
Cornelius Hirsch contributed the report.
This article is Politico Pro
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